September 19, 2018

1. River Edge, NJ → popular to younger family 

  • No real down town established (property tax is rather high)
  • Great School district – River Dell High
  • Train station to go to Manhattan
  • “Van Saun Park” with Zoo attracts more parent with children
  • Most houses built in1950 → ranch
  • Sold houses till 8/31 → 80 houses (Median price: $512,500) → 8% up from last year
  • Elementary schools: Roosevelt school, Cherry Hill school till 6th grade
  • River Dell Middle school (7-8 grade), RiverDell High (9-12 grade)
  • SAT score: 596 (reading, writing), 605 (math) (NJ avgage: 551, 552)
  • Train to Manhattan : River Edge station to Pen Station→50 minutes (monthly pass: $227) / New Bridge Landing Station to Manhattan→ 45 minuetes 
  • Bus to Manhattan: Kinderkamack Road to Port Authority→40 minutes (monthly pass: $167)

2. Palisades Park, NJ troubled with armed public school security guards

  • Hiring process was not clear → recently it was found a criminal was in the hiring list
  • 2 of security guards was pending from their duty by Board of Education (one of them is a brother of Councilman Henry Ruh who was a head of hiring committee)
  • Some parents requested investigation by NJ State Prosecutor’s office and Education Dept

3. New hotel/condo mixed use building will be next to Queens town hall building

  • 137-16 Northern Blvd.(former GW supermarket) / total 13 stories
  • Hotel: 244 rooms (100,880 sf)/ 38 luxury condo units/ 64 parking/ community space: 2270 sf → total 228,000 sf
  • Developer: Century development (Chinese heritage)

4. House price in New York went over the peak before financial crises

  • Access to street easily, price went over by 2 % from November 2006 (peak), increased by 28.5% from November 2011 (bottom)
  • NYC 5 Borough house price increased by Avgerage 3.8% annually since 2011 (total 30%)
  • Avgerage price in November 2006 → $510,679/ Januarly 2018 → $649,638 / July 2018 → $654,358
  • During this 10 year recovery period, total $217B worth increased in NYC
  • Warning→ price might be going down due to cyclic phenomena

5. Trump tax reform is not affecting much RE market

  • Beginning of the year : Tax reform was biggest concern to RE Market (NAR warned congress that tax reform will affect to house price down by 10% will affect more luxury houses)
  • In September, hardly can see tax reform affecting RE Market
  • Tax reform: (1) SALT (property tax, etc) deduction only up to $10,000

                            (2) Loan amount ($750,000) limit : interests deduction

                            (3) Standard deduction amount doubled

  • Most areas, house price keeps going uo → due to high demand
  • Accordding to Zillow study, (2), (3) are not affecting house price (1) is affecting top 10% house price down by 0.6%

6. Price for water front houses might be affected negatively due the climate change

  • Water level increase might be a concern for water from houses
  • According to CBS news, in general 7% lower than similar houses located in inland
  • Ex: $400,000 house in 2007 → currently it might sold $28,000 lower
  • In addition, frequent hurricanes (ex: Sandy) might drop the house price significantly
  • According to Core Logic, about 7M houses might be in danger to submerge → $1T  reconstruction cost expected (Zillow calculated similar expectation)
  • Research reveals that water level will increase 1 feet in 78 years / 2-3 feet in 80 years/ 4-5 feet in 101 years / 6 feet I 122 years
  • Not all of buyers will believe this phenomena → will have to watch money flow → price for investor owned house or non-primary house near water dropped between 2014 – 2016 noticeably

7. Trade war against China continues

  • Trump will impose 10% on $200B worth on “made in China” (next year → 25%) from 9/24/2018 → 3rd (1st: $34B / 2nd: $16B) → Tariff on about a half of “Made in China”
  • 3rd time tariff includes electronics, office supplies, bicycles, furniture, bags, wigs, etc. → consumer will feel it
  • China will impose on $60B worth → 2nd time (1st time: $50B) → no more trade card they can play → China’s dilemma
  • China might BAN to export some critical parts to US → US might need 3 -5 years to replace those parts from alternative sources